Megatrends 2025: The race for security

2. Policy changes

The global rise in policies such as tariffs, sanctions, subsidies, carbon border taxes and reshoring incentives is reshaping global trade and investment. In this more complex and uncertain trading environment, businesses are often forced to adapt quickly to sudden market changes.  

3. Critical raw materials 

There's growing global concern around the availability of secure and adequate supply of critical raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths that are vital for the energy and digital transitions. 

Countries are asserting greater control over their natural resources by increasing state ownership or control of resource extraction, restricting exports and prioritising local jobs, businesses and material processing. 

Key trends: 

• Current projected demand for critical raw materials outweighs the supply. 
• The World Economic Forum has identified the shortage of natural resourcesopens in a new window as the fourth most important global risk to the world economy in the next 10 years. 
• Forecasts predict a shortage of 10-15% for copper and nickel, and 30-45% for other battery metals. 
• China dominates global material processing. For example, China’s is expected to process half of global cobalt output in the next two years.  
• Price volatility and supply shocks are likely, especially where materials are mined and processed in politically unstable regions. 

4. Critical technologies 

There's fierce competition between countries and companies to gain global dominance in key technologies that underpin the future economyopens in a new window, including AI, quantum computing, engineering biology, semiconductors and future telecoms. This has resulted in a growing concentration of technology research and business capability in certain countries. 

Key trends: 

• China is now the global leader in technological research across 57 of the 64 critical technologiesopens in a new window. Between them, China and the US dominate science and technology research. 
• The combined value of the Big 7 technology firms, which are all American – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia and Broadcom – is $16 trillion USD. Their combined value is larger than every national economy except for the US ($29.1 trillion USD) and China ($18.3 trillion USD).  For comparison, the UK economy is worth $3.6 trillion USD. 

Watch a video: DeepSeek, TikTok, Temu - how China is taking the lead in tech:

5. Cybersecurity threats

Cyberspace has become a new arena for geopolitical conflict, with growing risks of espionage, sabotage and disinformation. Businesses must be vigilant in safeguarding their digital assets, sensitive information and operations, particularly as cyberthreats from a range of malicious actors escalate through existing and new methods of attack.  

Key trends: 

• Around 67% of organisations globally reported having at least one cyber-attack in 2024, up from 53% in 2023, indicating a worsening threat environment. 
• Of the organisations that have experienced a cyber attack in the past 12 months, 47% report greater difficulty in attracting new customers and 43% report losing customers. 
• A third of business leaders (34%) don't feel that their organisation is adequately prepared to handle cyber attacks. 
• In the UK 43% (612,000) businesses reported experiencing a cyber breach during 2024opens in a new window. Broken down by business size, this was 35% (micro businesses), 42% (small), 67% (medium) and 74% (large). The average cost of the most disruptive breach was around £3,550. 

The impacts, both for individual businesses and supply chains, can be very serious – as illustrated by the Jaguar Landrover, Marks and Spencer and Co-op incidents in 2025. At the same time, businesses must be prepared to respond to unintended cyber events such as the CrowdStrike incident in July 2024, the world’s largest cyber incident. 

Watch a video: The future of cyber security:

1. Understand external policy and market shifts

• Stay informed and understand policy and regulatory change. Carry out regular horizon scanning for changes in affecting your products, markets, technologies and operations.  
• Use this intelligence to understand potential on your business operations implications, perhaps by carrying out simple scenario planning exercises.  
• Rehearse contingency plans so you can respond swiftly to changing circumstances.   
• Ensure transparent communication with customers when disruption takes place. 
• Use our free market research service to identify changes in markets and technologies. 

2. Review trade strategies

• Identify and adapt to new tariffs, regulations and market changes.   
• Understand how recent trade agreements may enable new overseas growth opportunities for your business.   
• Adapt your marketing strategy, such as emphasising local sourcing or value, to help maintain customer trust and loyalty during uncertain times.  
• Get support on exporting, tariffs, trade agreements and developing an international strategy for your business. 

3. Assess supply chain vulnerabilities:  

• Identify dependencies on high-risk regions or materials and understand how severe weather events could disrupt global supply chains impacting on your business. 
• Speak to one of our sustainability expert advisers to discuss how to reduce your business’ exposure to climate impacts. 

4. Diversify markets

• Consider diversifying markets and suppliers to reduce reliance on any single country or region. This will help mitigate the impact of trade or supply chain disruption and ensure continuity of supply.   
• Use our free market research service to identify new markets and alternative suppliers of products or components. 

5. Balance trade-offs

• Weigh up the trade-offs related to market disruption and supply chain shocks. Businesses operating just-in-time supply chain systems may have to contend with sudden delays in receiving critical materials or components.   
• While shifting to a just-in-case approach may be prudent it can drive up inventory costs.   
• Businesses who opt for a wait-and-see strategy should factor in the opportunities they might lose from growing overseas via exports or acquisitions.

6. Explore circular solutions  

• Design for reuse and recovery: create products and services that can be easily reused, repaired, or remanufactured to extend their lifecycle and reduce material costs. 
• Build circular supply chains: partner with suppliers and logistics providers to enable take-back schemes, recycling and closed-loop material flows. 
• Use data to optimise resource use: track materials and product performance to identify waste, predict maintenance and improve efficiency. 
• Start small and scale: pilot circular initiatives in one area, measure impact and expand across the business to reduce risk and build momentum. 
• Find out how circular economy practices can benefit your business. 

7. Invest in cybersecurity

• Focus on implementing robust security protocols, conducting regular risk assessments, training employees on data protection best practices and AI-driven threats, and improving response capabilities. 
• To be most effective, these efforts should be part of a comprehensive cyber-risk strategy that includes insurance, mitigation and resilience approaches. 
• Speak to one of our digital Transformation experts about cybersecurity planning and certification.