Quantifying the impact of artificial intelligence on the Scottish economy

This report assesses the potential economic impact of AI on Scotland. It considers AI adoption, production and infrastructure, and identifies areas for future research by Scottish Enterprise.

The study combines a desk-based review of research and business data with economic modelling to 2035. It models potential impacts on GDP and productivity and draws on existing Scottish Enterprise analysis.

AI adoption could increase Scotland’s GDP by £2.7 billion to £19.3 billion by 2035, equivalent to 1.3% to 9% above the report’s null scenario. Under the Moderate scenario, GDP reaches almost £219 billion, while GVA per head rises by 34% to £95,661.

Under the Medium infrastructure scenario, investment could generate 10,900 one-off jobs, 880 full-time jobs and £4.5 billion in cumulative net GVA by 2035.

The report calls for a stronger and more detailed evidence base. It suggests further research into businesses adopting AI, consideration of a more detailed AI company taxonomy, continued monitoring of industry intelligence, and refinement of the modelling as better data become available.